Will the Democratic Party win the CT-01 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Connecticut's 1st district, with a 93¢ price implying near-certainty of a Democratic hold, yet the asymmetric implied yields (13.7% for Yes vs. 2420% for No) reveal severe illiquidity and minimal conviction behind the No side. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with just $14,102 open interest suggests this is a thin, inactive market where the high probability may not reflect genuine market-tested odds but rather a lack of contrarian capital willing to bet Republican. With 200 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, the market has time to evolve, but the extreme cliff risk index of 13 warns of potential sharp repricing if political conditions shift unexpectedly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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