Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Connecticut's 4th district, with a 93¢ price implying near-certainty of Democratic victory, yet the asymmetric implied yields (13.7% for Yes vs. 2425% for No) reveal severe liquidity constraints favoring the consensus position. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $17.9M open interest and a minuscule 1¢ spread suggests this is a "set and forget" market where the Democratic position is heavily backed but illiquid for contrarian bets, making the extreme No-side yield more a reflection of thin liquidity than genuine upside potential. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, meaningful price movement would likely require a significant political shock in this traditionally Democratic district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade