DC Defenders vs Birmingham Stallions winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that DC Defenders vs Birmingham Stallions winner?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing May 2, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 7,720% and an implied yield on the No side exceeding 4,000%, suggesting severe mispricing or pending information arrival at 1.9 events per hour.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 7,720% and an implied yield on the No side exceeding 4,000%, suggesting severe mispricing or pending information arrival at 1.9 events per hour. The Yes price has climbed 8 cents over seven days to 68¢, but the 21¢ spread and low liquidity ($347 daily volume) indicate thin order books that could amplify moves further before the May 2 close. The game was originally scheduled for April 24, so the 12-day window and cliff risk index of 1 suggest the contract may be approaching a resolution event or rescheduling announcement that could trigger sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If the DC Defenders win the DC Defenders vs Birmingham Stallions professional UFL football game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFLGAME-26APR24DCBHM-DC yes 100