Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats as overwhelming favorites at 93¢, reflecting Delaware's deep blue lean, but the extreme 2426% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity on the Republican outcome with minimal open interest of $31,455. The 96% realized volatility and 2.56 vol ratio suggest this market experiences outsized price swings despite the thin $52.55 daily volume, creating potential arbitrage opportunities for contrarian bettors willing to tolerate execution risk on the long-shot Republican position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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