What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 90891.2% and 251.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 1/6¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $29.829·OI $2,200.865·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

0xa4e4a9dcc191e695599991ef3bdecd94ffe82223746040ccdc258ee2b0c3af8a

7-day price27 snapshots · 4 regime

5¢4¢ current

Apr 224¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 90891.2%

IY (No) 251.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 19

RV 4766%

VR 1.41

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	90891.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	251.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4766%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:04:11 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa4e4a9dcc191e695599991ef3bdecd94ffe82223746040ccdc258ee2b0c3af8a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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