Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?

The Democratic position in FL-04 is priced at a historically depressed 14¢, implying an extraordinarily high 1,121.5% annualized yield for contrarian bettors willing to back a Democratic win despite the district's apparent Republican lean. With $16.9M in open interest but only $125 in daily volume, this market exhibits severe liquidity constraints that likely explain both the extreme yield and the modest 1¢ spread—suggesting the price may not reflect genuine market consensus so much as thin trading conditions. The 200-day timeline to the November 2026 midterms provides ample time for political shifts, yet the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (6) suggest the market isn't currently pricing in imminent catalysts that would dramatically move this probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade