Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?

This market is pricing Democrats at just 9¢ despite 200 days to the 2026 midterms, implying an extremely bullish Republican lean in FL-26 with a 923% risk-adjusted implied yield for "No" positions. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $24.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a stale, illiquid position where the price may not reflect current political conditions—particularly given that Florida's political landscape can shift significantly over seven months. The extreme 1,845% implied yield on "Yes" positions and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 10 warrant caution, as these metrics typically indicate either deep value or a market mispricing that could correct sharply closer to election day.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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