Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely confident Republican outcome at 91¢, but the extraordinarily high implied yield on the "No" side (1846.8%) signals severe illiquidity and suggests the true probability may be substantially lower than the price reflects. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $29.3M open interest, this appears to be a thin, one-sided market where the high price may reflect limited contrarian liquidity rather than genuine consensus. The 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political conditions to shift, making the current 91¢ price potentially vulnerable to repricing if Democratic momentum or candidate quality changes materialize.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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