What is the current probability for "Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1416.3% and 2.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 2/7¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $451.07·OI $11,097.855·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0x1b57a28051dde0a6a44a7bc21c4f2bbe6a78b4dde42368d1a6020bcd17f6d10a

7-day price18 snapshots · 2 regime

12¢4¢ current

Apr 214¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fluent token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fluent will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fluent (https://x.com/fluentxyz/photo) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1416.3%

IY (No) 2.5%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

RV 4128%

VR 25.77

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1416.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4128%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	25.77	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:02:26 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x1b57a28051dde0a6a44a7bc21c4f2bbe6a78b4dde42368d1a6020bcd17f6d10a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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