Will Austin Scott be the Republican nominee for GA-08?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will Austin Scott be the Republican nominee for GA-08?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Austin Scott commands an exceptionally high 93¢ price with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the market has settled on a near-consensus view rather than active price discovery.
Analysis
Austin Scott commands an exceptionally high 93¢ price with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the market has settled on a near-consensus view rather than active price discovery. The extreme 14,823.7% implied yield on "No" reflects the severe mispricing inherent to such lopsided probabilities, though the thin $13.9k open interest and tight 1¢ spread indicate limited liquidity to exploit this gap. With only 33 days until the May 19, 2026 primary resolution, the market is approaching expiry with a Cliff Risk Index of 13, meaning any late-breaking political developments could trigger sharp repricing if challengers emerge or Scott faces unexpected obstacles.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbe22d539aa968914356e8ea4ac74291e26bb5981b041c4f222f79de9ac8dd8e3 yes 100