Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston Winner?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. Boston is priced at an extremely high 88% win probability with only 16 days to resolution, yet the "No" side offers an absurd 15,282% implied yield—a classic sign this market has minimal liquidity ($11.2K open interest) and likely reflects a pricing error rather than genuine odds.
Analysis
Boston is priced at an extremely high 88% win probability with only 16 days to resolution, yet the "No" side offers an absurd 15,282% implied yield—a classic sign this market has minimal liquidity ($11.2K open interest) and likely reflects a pricing error rather than genuine odds. The sharp 14-cent rally over seven days combined with a 174% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 7 suggests this market is experiencing significant uncertainty around game conditions or participant availability, making the steep Boston favorite potentially vulnerable to late-breaking information.
Resolution rules
If Boston wins the Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR21PHIBOS-BOS yes 100