Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston Winner?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. Boston is priced at an extremely high 88% win probability with only 16 days to resolution, yet the "No" side offers an absurd 15,282% implied yield—a classic sign this market has minimal liquidity ($11.2K open interest) and likely reflects a pricing error rather than genuine odds.

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88¢
Bid/Ask 87/88¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,848,884.2·OI $1,910,032.14·Closes May 5, 2026·14d remaining
KXNBAGAME-26APR21PHIBOS-BOS
7-day price103 snapshots · 67 regime
90¢87¢ current
Apr 1673¢Apr 21

Analysis

47h ago

Boston is priced at an extremely high 88% win probability with only 16 days to resolution, yet the "No" side offers an absurd 15,282% implied yield—a classic sign this market has minimal liquidity ($11.2K open interest) and likely reflects a pricing error rather than genuine odds. The sharp 14-cent rally over seven days combined with a 174% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 7 suggests this market is experiencing significant uncertainty around game conditions or participant availability, making the steep Boston favorite potentially vulnerable to late-breaking information.

Resolution rules

If Boston wins the Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 389.2%
IY (No) 17429.1%
Adj IY 8614%
CRI 7
LAS 0.01
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)389.2%
IY (No)17429.1%
Adj IY8614%
CRI7
LAS0.01

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 10:51:14 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR21PHIBOS-BOS yes 100

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