Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston Winner?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a Philadelphia victory priced at just 14¢ despite the game being scheduled for April 21, 2026—nearly two weeks before the May 5 close date, suggesting the outcome should already be determined or heavily influenced by real-world information.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a Philadelphia victory priced at just 14¢ despite the game being scheduled for April 21, 2026—nearly two weeks before the May 5 close date, suggesting the outcome should already be determined or heavily influenced by real-world information. The astronomical 13,137% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 837% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates severe pricing instability and potential liquidity constraints, with only $6,000 in 24-hour volume relative to $6,249 open interest. The flat 7-day price movement at 14¢ contradicts the extreme volatility metrics, suggesting either stale pricing data or a market awaiting resolution clarity as the April 21 game date approaches.
Resolution rules
If Philadelphia wins the Game 2: Philadelphia at Boston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR21PHIBOS-PHI yes 100