Game 4: Tampa Bay at Montreal Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Game 4: Tampa Bay at Montreal Winner?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026. This market exhibits extreme volatility with a realized volatility of 6946% and an implied yield of 1694%, suggesting highly erratic price action despite the contract being only 22 days from expiration on a scheduled April 26, 2026 event.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme volatility with a realized volatility of 6946% and an implied yield of 1694%, suggesting highly erratic price action despite the contract being only 22 days from expiration on a scheduled April 26, 2026 event. The minimal liquidity of $50.53 in both volume and open interest, combined with a wide 14¢ spread, indicates this is a thin market where large trades could move prices substantially. The Cliff Risk Index of 1 and information arrival rate of 1.5 per hour suggest elevated uncertainty and active information flow, though the modest 7-day price movement from 51¢ to 50¢ doesn't reflect the extreme volatility metrics, potentially indicating recent price stabilization after earlier turbulence.
Resolution rules
If TB Lightning wins the Game 4: Tampa Bay at Montreal professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLGAME-26APR26TBMTL-TB yes 100