Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.5M open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped. The 16¢ price implies an unusually low 16% probability for a named candidate in a primary election, paired with a massive 1809% implied yield on the Yes side and a 2187% realized volatility—indicating either severe mispricing or very thin order books distorting the quoted price. With 106 days to resolution and a wide 18¢ bid-ask spread, this appears to be a speculative position with high cliff risk rather than an efficiently priced market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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