Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume despite $3M open interest, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the wide 7¢ spread and extreme 3395% implied yield on the Yes side. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (1798%) and info arrival rate (0.9/h) indicate significant uncertainty around Trump's approval trajectory, though the flat 7-day price action suggests recent stabilization at this depressed level. With 258 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this contract carries substantial tail risk, making the current pricing potentially exploitable for sophisticated traders with conviction on approval dynamics through end-2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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