Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 3¢, implying only a 3% probability that Trump will sell between 101-1,000 Gold Cards in 2026, yet it carries an extraordinary 4,563% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite minimal 24-hour volume of just $5. The unusually high open interest of $20.7M relative to the tiny spread and low liquidity suggests significant speculative positioning, possibly from early believers betting on the program's success, though the neutral regime score and modest 7-day price appreciation (2¢ to 3¢) indicate the market hasn't shifted materially on new information about the Gold Card initiative's viability.

Resolution rules

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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