How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
Leader sits at 71% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1-100
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
101-1k
Spread
56pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$241
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
207 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: >100k
0xa32587…f974
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 10k-25k
0xb51d73…db60
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 1-100
0x326df6…4a96
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 101-1k
0x960324…7f7a
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 2.5k-5k
0xfff9fd…f887
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 5k-10k
0xcfaa15…7688
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Trump will sell zero Gold Cards during 2026. The 21% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, though significant disagreement exists between venues—Kalshi traders price it at 35% while Polymarket traders at 15%. The gap suggests uncertainty about what "selling" means operationally and whether Trump's Gold Card initiative will maintain sales momentum throughout the year. Most volume concentrates on the zero-sales and 1-5 sales contracts, indicating traders view either near-complete cessation or minimal sales as most likely. The resolution hinges on transparent, publicly reported sales figures from Trump's organization for the full 2026 calendar year. Any organized sales push, marketing campaign, or licensing partnership could shift probabilities upward, while declining interest or discontinuation would reinforce the zero outcome.
- ›Sales volumes in late 2025 and early 2026 establish baseline momentum—declining trend would increase zero probability
- ›Definition clarity: whether "sales" includes pre-orders, gift distributions, or only direct transactions affects resolution certainty
- ›Competing venues price this 20 percentage points apart, suggesting material disagreement on operational or definitional factors
- ›Top Kalshi contract (0 sales) trades at 91¢ while 1-5 sales trades at 9¢, concentrating risk in binary outcome
- ›No scheduled promotional events, launch dates, or earnings reports currently drive near-term volatility in this contract
What moved the line
- Jun 1101-1k↑6pp15→21¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 21-100↑5pp64→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 302.5k-5k↓5pp10→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 301-100↑3pp63→66¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 61-100↓3pp68→65¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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