How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering 261.5% implied yield versus 75.8% for Yes, suggesting significant underpricing of the bearish outcome despite the 73¢ price.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the No side offering 261.5% implied yield versus 75.8% for Yes, suggesting significant underpricing of the bearish outcome despite the 73¢ price. The $658 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate minimal trading activity, making the 9¢ spread potentially unreliable for execution, while the modest 3¢ price rise over seven days suggests weak conviction among the few participants. With 259 days to expiry and low cliff risk, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if you believe US oil production will fall below 14.10 million barrels per day, though the illiquidity poses real exit challenges.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. produces at least 14.10 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBARRELS-26-14.10 yes 100