Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
This contract is priced at 27¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 25¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 3¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
10
Family volume
$101K
Best sibling
700-800k 0¢
Ticker
0x5851bae9…3443
Market snapshot
400-500k in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Trump deport 400-500k people?. The displayed quote is 27¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $50. In the How many people will Trump deport in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #2 of 10 by current quote across 10 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
400-500k
Family rank
#2 of 10
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
27¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$50
Family context
10 outcomes · How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Quote range
0¢-51¢
Family leader
300-400k 51¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: 0x5851bae96eeb26f343fa3c39602ce4d63f58629afdbc58bf409d565425f23443. Family volume: $101K.
Price history
27¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
25 / 28¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x5851bae9…3443
Event family
How many people will Trump deport in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$101K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
300-400k 51¢
Current share
5%
400-500k
polymarket · 0x5851bae96eeb26f343fa3c39602ce4d63f58629afdbc58bf409d565425f23443
700-800k
polymarket · 0xf2736824877bbe44197ed0df54dbc74b65ffcab7dd5dac444d2526be30ae9bda
300-400k
polymarket · 0xfe03abb00e18ab3a241a77ad5d0d170d95610c881a84422a2206c615eb696b03
800-900k
polymarket · 0x29fe6822575fba5dfee9f1a0db1323e54d47ae093c563cca97b3dfce1d5b9b10
<200k
polymarket · 0xb2d0a02bc6dd49d5dce5b10246d4221377c37a028c6fc06209a412f9bfb7e195
200-300k
polymarket · 0xccb52c915cd4e825665dc00c274f78aa13c047b559fae7a1b600b9d1f375746f
>1m
polymarket · 0xfc60582cc8fdf0811452b26cbdd9af5cdbeb884430b039a3487ef6ddd754a2ac
500-600k
polymarket · 0x9cf87b067740fc6c9cd1394bda541a3a05f2cc39b047df924923bce92505354c
900k-1m
polymarket · 0x451ba208a7154c5f7fa204db8e32d2ee86f313377f6074b50c72294ed1def69b
600-700k
polymarket · 0x33b7277c03e7fb10118243ce15a26dadc34bce7a3d43a7738a5896bdcefb31f7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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