How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Leader sits at 52% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
300-400k
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
400-500k
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$230
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many people will Trump deport in 2026
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 300-400k
0xfe03ab…6b03
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 500-600k
0x9cf87b…354c
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 400-500k
0x5851ba…3443
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 200-300k
0xccb52c…746f
Analysis
This contract asks whether the Trump administration will deport between 300,000 and 400,000 people during 2026. The 21% probability reflects significant skepticism that deportations will reach this specific range, with markets pricing in either lower removal rates or numbers exceeding 400,000. Key drivers of this probability include actual deportation enforcement capacity, policy implementation timelines, and legal challenges to removal programs. The resolution will depend on verifiable deportation statistics released by immigration authorities. Uncertainty stems from unpredictability in enforcement priorities, court rulings on immigration procedures, and resource allocation across different enforcement mechanisms.
- ›Year-to-date deportation figures as of mid-2026 will indicate trajectory toward the 300-400k range versus lower or higher outcomes
- ›Changes to immigration enforcement funding, personnel, or operational scope announced by the administration could significantly alter removal capacity
- ›Federal court decisions on immigration detention or removal procedures could expand or constrain deportation operations
- ›The specific definition of 'deportation' used by authorities and the source data agency (ICE, CBP, etc.) will determine how borderline cases are counted
- ›Comparison to historical deportation levels (2020: ~185k, 2019: ~267k, 2017-2018 averages) provides baseline context for assessing feasibility of the 300-400k range
What moved the line
- May 6500-600k↓12pp21→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6300-400k↓8pp57→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 2300-400k↑6pp50→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 6400-500k↑4pp23→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 2400-500k↓3pp26→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.