Will President Trump sign 0 pieces of legislation into law in April?

This market has collapsed from 35¢ to 6¢ over seven days, implying traders now assign only a 6% probability that Trump signs zero legislation in April 2026, likely reflecting confidence in legislative productivity during a full month. The extreme 53,956% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $1.43 and a tight $6,915 open interest suggests this is a thin, illiquid market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus. With 11 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 2,073%, the market remains highly unstable and vulnerable to sharp repricing on any legislative news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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