Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 13 and 15 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 13 and 15 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing May 23, 2026.

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49¢
Bid/Ask 5/92¢·Spread 87¢·Vol $0·OI $10.105·Closes May 23, 2026·24d remaining
0x12e295c1c56937774e4d40e676e8d797670285ad714ca39b9e6bd2ee707998cb
7-day price2000 snapshots · 13 regime
57¢49¢ current
Apr 1519¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1609.9%
IY (No) 1486.1%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 1
LAS 1.84
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1609.9%
IY (No)1486.1%
Adj IY0%
CRI1
LAS1.84

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
87¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 9:41:18 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 9:38:27 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x12e295c1c56937774e4d40e676e8d797670285ad714ca39b9e6bd2ee707998cb yes 100

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