Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner: BJP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
23%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$49K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Presidential Election Winner 2028” vs “Maine Senate Election Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio
0x2053d8…5277
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
0x7ad403…c422
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom
0x4567b2…7e57
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris
0xb3298a…2501
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson
0xd94b47…a797
Cluster 2
Maine Senate Election Winner
Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat
0x66bbf6…639c
Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican
0x2c00cb…8c48
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects market expectations that India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the most seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election. The current estimate suggests traders view the BJP as a competitive but uncertain contender in the state. Assam's political dynamics involve multiple regional and national factors. The BJP's performance would likely depend on factors including voter turnout patterns, coalition dynamics with regional parties, and sentiment shifts on economic or governance issues in the state. The primary resolution point for this market would be the official election results once Assam holds its next assembly election. Until voting occurs and results are certified, this probability remains subject to revision based on polling data, political developments, or changes in voter sentiment reported through media coverage of the state's political situation.
- ›Historical voting patterns in Assam show competitive multi-party contests with regional parties consistently performing strongly alongside national parties
- ›Current composition of the Assam Legislative Assembly and recent electoral performance of BJP in the state compared to opposition parties
- ›Timing of the next scheduled Assam assembly election and whether pre-election polling data becomes available to traders
- ›Coalition arrangements and alliance strategies involving BJP and regional partners, which significantly impact seat distribution outcomes
- ›Economic conditions and governance perception in Assam during the period leading up to the election
Recently closed in election 2026
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- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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