Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

The market has collapsed from 15¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Iran executing 8-9 ship attacks by end-April, yet the extreme 26,830% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe illiquidity with only $10.6k open interest and a 6¢ spread. With just 14 days to expiry, the 1,792% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 10 signal high uncertainty around a binary outcome, though the neutral regime and modest 1.9 info arrivals per hour suggest no imminent catalyst is priced in.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade