Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Josh Turek's Democratic nomination odds have risen 20% over the past week to 42¢, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17,290 open interest and an extreme 1559% realized volatility.
Analysis
Josh Turek's Democratic nomination odds have risen 20% over the past week to 42¢, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17,290 open interest and an extreme 1559% realized volatility. The astronomical 1144% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution signals either mispricing or very low conviction among traders, particularly concerning given the 46-day timeline to the June 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicating binary outcome potential.
Also on kalshi at 36¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xebca06463a9dcfa46dce21d63313c31db6c58b9ab68c09cceb988378f9c2174f yes 100