Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Zach Wahls is priced at 56¢ on Polymarket but only 50¢ on Kalshi, suggesting meaningful disagreement across venues with a 6-cent arbitrage gap.
Analysis
Zach Wahls is priced at 56¢ on Polymarket but only 50¢ on Kalshi, suggesting meaningful disagreement across venues with a 6-cent arbitrage gap. The market shows extreme volatility (150% realized, 1048% risk-adjusted yield on the No side) despite modest 24-hour volume of $84.15, indicating thin liquidity and potential for sharp repricing as the June 2026 primary approaches in 44 days. The neutral regime score and declining price from 60¢ over seven days suggest uncertainty about Wahls's nomination prospects, though the 56% implied probability still reflects meaningful backing.
Also on kalshi at 61¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x74e889ae900369de63774bf2ff1eca10ccc3e0295301425f6b4e32f4399aeec8 yes 100