Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.8%?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3,537% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 33 days to resolution, suggesting severe illiquidity ($5 daily volume, $140k open interest) is driving the 24-cent price well below fundamental value. The sharp 7-point price decline over a week combined with a 1,137% realized volatility and 2.10 vol ratio indicates recent panic selling in a thin market, while the 15-cent spread and cliff risk index of 3 reflect genuine uncertainty near the May 19 resolution date when Japan's Q1 GDP figures release.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

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