Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Philip Sarnecki's odds have collapsed 54% over seven days (from 13¢ to 6¢), suggesting a significant negative information arrival at 0.9/h, though the extremely high realized volatility of 1294% and cliff risk index of 16 indicate this market is highly unstable and potentially illiquid despite $325k in 24h volume.
Analysis
Philip Sarnecki's odds have collapsed 54% over seven days (from 13¢ to 6¢), suggesting a significant negative information arrival at 0.9/h, though the extremely high realized volatility of 1294% and cliff risk index of 16 indicate this market is highly unstable and potentially illiquid despite $325k in 24h volume. The astronomical implied yield of 5245% on the yes side reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin long-shot markets, where small position sizes can drive outsized percentage returns. With 109 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a serious primary contender, warranting caution on both the price reliability and resolution clarity.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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Trade
sf trade 0xd482f14b4a09d5d554589e8049d4c8eb367bd5caf01c9cb6d45e058b73cf1835 yes 100