Will Philip Sarnecki be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Philip Sarnecki be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Philip Sarnecki's nomination odds have collapsed 67% over the past week, plummeting from 15¢ to 5¢, suggesting either new negative information or market correction toward a consensus view that he's a long-shot candidate.
Analysis
Philip Sarnecki's nomination odds have collapsed 67% over the past week, plummeting from 15¢ to 5¢, suggesting either new negative information or market correction toward a consensus view that he's a long-shot candidate. The extreme 3458% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deeply illiquid $2.6k open interest and tight pricing, making this a speculative micro-market where small trades can create outsized percentage returns rather than a reliable probability estimate. With 201 days to expiry and a volatile 12,869% realized volatility, this market appears to be pricing in significant uncertainty about Kansas Republican primary dynamics, though the low 24-hour volume of $357 suggests limited conviction among traders.
Also on polymarket at 8¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
If Philip Sarnecki wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVKSNOMR-26-PS yes 100