Will Rick Edmonds be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Rick Edmonds be the Republican nominee for LA-05?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with a 23,290% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 5% pricing, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with a 23,290% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 5% pricing, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The $800k open interest contrasts sharply with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread, indicating the market may be frozen with stale pricing ahead of the May 16, 2026 primary just 30 days away. The 1,106% realized volatility and sharp 60% price decline over seven days (8¢ to 5¢) signal either significant new information about Edmonds' candidacy or technical dysfunction in this thin market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd454db5ae85b62dcca6392c8dc0f305ba9013c95fe069c9bceade1afad20e8b5 yes 100