Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $6.3M in open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially trapped. The 4¢ price implies only a 4% probability of Hezbollah winning the most seats, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 20,609% is astronomically high—a mathematical artifact of the tiny price that would require dramatic geopolitical shifts or market repricing to materialize. With 43 days to expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, the market is approaching resolution, but the zero spread and lack of trading activity indicate minimal confidence in price discovery or the ability to exit positions at quoted levels.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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