Will the Democratic Party win the MD-07 House seat?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.7K open interest and a suspiciously wide implied yield gap (11.6% for Yes versus 2859% for No). The 94¢ price reflects strong Democratic confidence in Maryland's 7th district, a traditionally blue seat, but the astronomical No-side yield and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 suggest minimal No-side liquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine uncertainty. With 200 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this market appears to be a "set and forget" position where the Democratic outcome is heavily favored but thinly traded.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade