Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 3950% implied yield on the No side versus 352% on Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the negligible $0 trading volume and minimal $117 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 3950% implied yield on the No side versus 352% on Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the negligible $0 trading volume and minimal $117 open interest. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract's notional value, and the 85¢ price appears overconfident for an event 31 days out involving a top-10 finish prediction for a specific driver. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and the massive No-side yield, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the pricing and warrants caution for any meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If Oscar Piastri finishes in the top 10 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-PIA yes 100