Will the Tampa Bay Rays win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will the Tampa Bay Rays win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Polymarket, closing October 5, 2026. The 47¢ price reflects a near coin-flip probability for the Rays exceeding 78.5 wins, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 42¢ spread despite $811k open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
The 47¢ price reflects a near coin-flip probability for the Rays exceeding 78.5 wins, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 42¢ spread despite $811k open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not reflect true consensus. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 286% and implied yields exceeding 230% indicate either significant uncertainty about Tampa Bay's 2026 roster construction or thin order books driving outsized price swings, making this a speculative positioning rather than a liquid prediction market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "O 78.5" if the Tampa Bay Rays win more than 78.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Tampa Bay Rays to record more than 78.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 78.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xda7bfbe6200fd79ab493260f8b54d33d29c6b2b3c86e141aa56dc330482972ad yes 100