Will the Republican Party win the MO-07 House seat?

This market reflects overwhelming confidence in Republican retention of Missouri's 7th district, with the Yes position priced at 92¢ implying a 92% win probability, though the extreme 2099% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity on that end. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $19,010 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a relatively dormant market with minimal recent trading activity despite 200 days until resolution. The modest 1-cent price decline over seven days and neutral regime score indicate stable sentiment, though the 12 Cliff Risk Index warrants attention to potential late-campaign developments that could shift the heavily skewed probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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