Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. Scott Brown's odds have collapsed 67% over seven days (from 9¢ to 3¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread, suggesting the price discovery may be stale despite extreme realized volatility of 6430%.
Analysis
Scott Brown's odds have collapsed 67% over seven days (from 9¢ to 3¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread, suggesting the price discovery may be stale despite extreme realized volatility of 6430%. The astronomical implied yield of 8198% on a "Yes" resolution reflects the illiquidity trap typical of deep long-shot positions, while the high cliff risk index (32) and information arrival rate (5.3/h) indicate this market remains sensitive to primary developments with over four months until the September 2026 close.
Also on kalshi at 6¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x9156f27ce7f4eccae5ff2d7b952c50b8c6b0b5be2abc60b6b3ecd200d003d735 yes 100