Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for a Democratic victory in New York's 2026 gubernatorial race, yet the asymmetric implied yields reveal severe mispricing: the No side offers a staggering 2099% yield versus just 15.9% for Yes, suggesting the market is dramatically undervaluing Republican chances despite New York's Democratic lean. With only $46.68 in 24-hour volume against $33M in open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating cliff risk (index of 12) and potential slippage for any meaningful trade, while the 1¢ spread masks the true difficulty of exiting positions at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade