What is the current probability for "Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.8% and 44.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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23¢

Bid/Ask 0/46¢·Spread 46¢·Vol $177.36·OI $667.305·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0xa7d4d902cda2a60f2a6c935778aa687844948f151209bddd3c965c0e272a374f

7-day price94 snapshots · 2 regime

47¢23¢ current

Apr 280¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.8%

IY (No) 44.5%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 3

RV 27278%

VR 25.34

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	27278%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	25.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 12:46:28 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 12:53:56 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa7d4d902cda2a60f2a6c935778aa687844948f151209bddd3c965c0e272a374f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →