Will the Republican Party win the OR-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, reflecting the 7¢ price that prices Republicans at only 7% to win this heavily Democratic Oregon district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $33,258 in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the high theoretical yield, indicating this may be a "ghost market" with stale pricing rather than active trading. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the extreme yield is likely compensation for both the low probability and the illiquidity risk rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade