Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (823% realized vol) with a massive 2,124% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite $22k open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (823% realized vol) with a massive 2,124% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite $22k open interest. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 37¢ price, and the 7-day decline from 40¢ to 37¢ combined with only $41 in 24h volume indicates thin trading that may not reflect genuine probability assessment. With 32 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing as the May 19 primary approaches and more information arrives (3.0 signals/hour).
Also on kalshi at 25¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3b93cd399737eaebdcb222c2978cc2595625d41fbfe34666b215c4e53c3cf082 yes 100