Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. McClure's odds have doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over the past week, though at just $221 in 24-hour volume the market remains illiquid and potentially vulnerable to manipulation.
Analysis
McClure's odds have doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over the past week, though at just $221 in 24-hour volume the market remains illiquid and potentially vulnerable to manipulation. The astronomical 26,778% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the extreme long-shot nature of this bet, with a high Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggesting significant tail risk as the May 19 primary approaches in 33 days. The 13x volatility ratio and 6,527% realized volatility indicate this is a highly unstable market where information arrival (2.9 events per hour) could easily swing pricing, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with nomination uncertainty.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd78be31bfd65881be515826515444e27d96a05c6b10b66fab1ad58876dd04fef yes 100