Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This San Francisco Giants playoff qualifier contract is pricing in a 26% probability with an extraordinarily high 582% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant mispricing or extreme tail risk embedded in the contract structure.
Analysis
This San Francisco Giants playoff qualifier contract is pricing in a 26% probability with an extraordinarily high 582% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant mispricing or extreme tail risk embedded in the contract structure. The 1535% realized volatility and 5.32 vol ratio indicate this market experiences dramatic price swings, yet the modest $52 daily volume and $10,519 open interest reveal dangerously thin liquidity that could amplify those moves further. With 199 days to expiry and a recent 3-cent price decline (21¢ to 24¢), the neutral regime and 2.3 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is still digesting information, making this a high-risk, potentially high-reward position for contrarian bettors comfortable with substantial uncertainty.
Resolution rules
If San Francisco is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SF yes 100