Will Tarik Skubal win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Skubal's odds have surged 50% over seven days (28¢ to 42¢), suggesting recent positive sentiment, though the extremely thin 24-hour volume of $71 against $1.88M open interest raises liquidity concerns and makes the price potentially unreliable. The 240% implied yield on the yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the low current price rather than genuine expected returns, while the 13.82 volatility ratio and 2356% realized volatility indicate this market experiences dramatic swings—typical for long-dated, low-liquidity prediction markets with sparse information arrival (3.6 updates per hour). With 210 days to expiration, significant uncertainty remains around Skubal's injury status, performance trajectory, and competing AL pitchers' development.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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