What is the current probability for "Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 529.2% and 42.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,872% implied yield on the Yes side despite near-zero trading volume ($0 in 24h) and a wide 4¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distortion rather than genuine probability assessment.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 20/24¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $347.954·OI $7,388.782·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x384e2707bbb95da4bfa6f330fe7d5ccbec1c0a85e20be900cbf599987588e1a4

7-day price503 snapshots · 23 regime

50¢22¢ current

Apr 106¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,872% implied yield on the Yes side despite near-zero trading volume ($0 in 24h) and a wide 4¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distortion rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has collapsed 42% over seven days (from 12¢ to 7¢), indicating either deteriorating fundamentals or liquidity-driven selling pressure in a thin market with only $7.3k open interest. With 259 days to expiry and a modest 13 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative position where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than a credible 7% chance of Reya exceeding $200M FDV post-launch.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 529.2%

IY (No) 42.1%

Adj IY 457%

CRI 4

RV 1053%

VR 4.09

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	529.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	42.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	457%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1053%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.09	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 11:51:17 AM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 11:38:30 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x384e2707bbb95da4bfa6f330fe7d5ccbec1c0a85e20be900cbf599987588e1a4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →