Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in a 92% win probability for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic lean, though the extreme 2091.8% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe illiquidity with only $41,111 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2-cent spread and flat price action over seven days suggest this market has largely settled into a consensus view with minimal trading activity, leaving it vulnerable to significant repricing if political conditions shift before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade