Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)

This market has collapsed 62.5% over seven days (from 48¢ to 18¢), suggesting sharp downward price discovery on San Jose's chances of winning by 3+ goals against Austin FC. The astronomical 24,539% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the extreme illiquidity and cliff risk (score of 5), with zero 24-hour volume despite $88k open interest, indicating trapped positions rather than active trading. With only 7 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the realized volatility of 3,834% signals this is a highly speculative tail-risk bet where the low price may not reflect true probability so much as illiquidity and position imbalance.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Jose Earthquakes" if San Jose Earthquakes win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Austin FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Regime

Trade