What is the current probability for "Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 9, 2026. 48 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10112.6% and 57.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 6/8¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $12,862.449·Closes Jun 9, 2026·48d remaining

0xdd85dffd2e1381f41f850933f6947beb5f78d730a368f456a704fa325c1bc2da

7-day price470 snapshots · 3 regime

29¢7¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10112.6%

IY (No) 57.3%

Adj IY 2889%

CRI 13

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.43

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10112.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	57.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2889%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.43	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:23:11 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:08:17 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xdd85dffd2e1381f41f850933f6947beb5f78d730a368f456a704fa325c1bc2da yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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