Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (1503% realized vol) and extraordinarily high implied yields (720.8% for Yes) despite modest 24-hour volume of just $21.5, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing in a race with 53 days to resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (1503% realized vol) and extraordinarily high implied yields (720.8% for Yes) despite modest 24-hour volume of just $21.5, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing in a race with 53 days to resolution. The 6¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate genuine uncertainty, though the price has risen 5¢ over seven days, possibly reflecting recent information arrival at 2.8 events per hour. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and primary voting imminent on 6/9/2026, this market is highly sensitive to nomination developments and carries significant execution risk for traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x04a4267965c6e60f8b8d3bcc06e90e329707ad13d8b6007e42ed67acde8ebab7 yes 100