What is the current probability for "Siena vs Merrimack Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 95¢ (95% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Siena vs Merrimack Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 238.3% and 24358.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Siena vs Merrimack Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Siena vs Merrimack Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Siena vs Merrimack Winner?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026.

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95¢

Bid/Ask 91/95¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $7.19·OI $7.19·Closes May 6, 2026·15d remaining

KXNCAAMLAXGAME-26APR22SIEMC-SIE

7-day price12 snapshots · 1 regime

91¢91¢ current

Apr 202¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

If Siena is the winner in the Siena vs Merrimack Men's College Lacrosse game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 238.3%

IY (No) 24358.5%

Adj IY 24358%

CRI 10

RV 3841%

VR 20.62

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	238.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	24358.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	24358%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3841%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	20.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 4:33:25 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 4:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAAMLAXGAME-26APR22SIEMC-SIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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