Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 642% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price reflects lack of trading rather than genuine consensus that the Fed's balance sheet will remain below $7.0 trillion by late 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 642% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price reflects lack of trading rather than genuine consensus that the Fed's balance sheet will remain below $7.0 trillion by late 2026. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the recent 3¢ decline over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicates potential pricing instability as the market approaches resolution in 259 days. Given the Fed's current balance sheet sits around $7.2 trillion and the neutral regime score, this market appears mispriced due to abandonment rather than fundamental bearishness on balance sheet expansion.
Resolution rules
If the value of Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) for Dec 30, 2026 is above $7.0 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBALANCESHEET-EO26-7.0 yes 100